T-Minus 11 hours and 45 minutes...

And here we are on Oscar day. My traditional Oscar party is not what it use to be. I am not certain whether that is due to the sprawl in which my friends now live or the fact that this, unlike NY is not as much of a movie town. Regardless there will be pernil and rice to go around for whoever is here. Truth be told, I do miss the larger gathering with trash talk, Vicky never having her $10 for the pool, Robin and Kylie's favorite part being the red carpet walk to breakdown how the outfits went horribly wrong, Wes' aggravation over the academy's inability to think like him and Lydell's never wavering belief that he is going to win (and the fact that it is Tikketha's fault when he doesn't). I suspect that is what made the party the most fun.

But enough nostalgia, I have two more categories to cover - Best Director and Film.

Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, Scaphandre et le papillon, Le

OK, this category is a no brainer. You need only follow the rule of thumb that says. As goes the Director's Guild, goes the Oscars. The DGA selects its' best director each year in advance of the Oscars and the last time that director did not go on to win the Best Oscar was over 20 years ago when Steven Spielberg won the DGA for The Color Purple and lost the Oscar to Sydney Pollack for Out of Africa. All of this to say - Joel and Ethan Cohen will win this award tonight. Period.

Side note -- Remember when the Oscars (and all awards shows for that matter went politically correct and stopped saying "And the winner is..." for the more gentile "And the Oscar goes to..." This was the start of a trend against winners and losers that permeates our lives now. Little Leagues give everyone trophies, there are no winners and losers. It is the slow erosion of competition. But I digress...


Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
Atonement - Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Paul Webster
Juno - Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick, Russell Smith
Michael Clayton - Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox, Kerry Orent
No Country for Old Men - Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson, Daniel Lupi, JoAnne Sellar

This is the unfortunate part of the evening. It's a solid bet that No Country for Old Men will win this category. There is minimal to no chance that Juno or Michael Clayton could dark horse this race. It is unlikely though because No Country for Old Men has the wind at its back and was as much a critical darling as Juno and Michael Clayton. It makes for a boring last half hour of the Oscars because it holds little to no suspense. I liked the film a whole lot, would still likely select Juno if I was picking a best film of the three. It's an odd category this year because none of the five films are classics in the making. They are simply good work. So don't feel any shame in going to sleep early this year and checking the Internet or Today Show for a wrap up in the morning.

I of course will be up for the long haul. I am a die hard though and this is my fun night. I like to watch and critique it all from the speeches to the memoriam. I may blog along the way tonight or simply recap in the morning. Stay tuned.