Oscar Breakdown -- 6 days and counting

Here we go it is time for my favorite arm chair quarterbacking. Breaking down the Oscars by category. The Oscars are on Sunday, complete with John Stewart as host and a Barbara Walter's special. Now while I will be tuning in to see Harrison Ford and Ellen Page's interview - I think I will skip Miley Cyrus and Vanessa Williams. The latter escape me as to how they are connected to the big night. But over the next week I will be breaking down the nominees and voting for my favorites -- Mind you there is a difference between my favorite vs. what I believe the academy will choose. This is a concept my dear friend Wes simply refused to embrace and why he has never won the Oscar pool.

Up First - Best Supporting Actor & Actress

The nominees:

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

As I type this I can see the sentence biting me in the ass. My vote goes to Javier Bardem and conventional wisdom says he will win as well. He has pretty much swept up the pre-season awards, most importantly the SAG last month. It is a horrifically creepy and compelling performance and Bardem is "due" for not winning for Before Night Falls (especially since he was beat by a less than spectacular performance from Russell Crowe in Gladiator). Here is the problem, Oscar loves an upset and a reach and usually reserves it for the supporting actor categories. I would say Hoffman is out, he won recently for his tour de force performance in Capote. Wilkinson is good, but in a showy role that many good actors could have eaten up like candy. I did not see Casey Affleck's performance yet, have heard it's great, but he's the younger brother of Ben Affleck for goodness sake, the gods can't be that cruel. While I wouldn't bet the farm on it (see Lauren Bacall for the Mirror Has Two Faces), I think Holbrook has a shot at this because it is a poignant beautiful performance and he is a revered elder statesman of the academy. What hurts him, no one saw the film. MY BET - Javier Bardem

Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Here is a race where I think the academy will have its' upset. Blanchett and Dee have both taken pre-season awards and the obvious contenders. Both are great in their respective roles. Blanchett is nominated twice, for an undeserving turn in Elizabeth. I love Cate as much as the next person, but this was a gimme. I suspect she will stay seated come Sunday night. Ruby Dee is interesting for a couple of reasons, she is an icon, a marvelous actress and in the twilight of her career. She is also notably the only African American nominated in a major category this year. Will the academy ride the recent wave of minority wins? I am not so sure and here is why. Amy Ryan has gotten wonderful raves for Gone Baby Gone and is adored by the critics in a film role that moved people. She could be the quirky win that the academy loves to have (see Marisa Tomei)and could be a sleeper win (P.S. a Ben Affleck film - do you sense the trend).
MY PICK - Ruby Dee (but I will be neither surprised nor sad if Amy Ryan is making a speech at 9:30PM this Sunday).

Tomorrow.... Bring on the actors