Oscars, Debates and Lost - OH MY!

Quick advisory note -- Tape Lost, watch the Debates on CNN.

OK, back to the Oscars -- Today, the Actors

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Sadly this is a no brainer. All the performances are strong, Clooney in particular gives an ironic disquieted performance. Johnny Depp takes on the creepy and blood thirsty Sweeny Todd with a terrific style and morose take and he swings the difficult music with ease. Viggo Mortensen shows his talents in ways people wouldn't normally think of him in, especially those who adore the Lord of the Rings trilogy. I have not seen Tommy Lee Jones' performance, because frankly I can not sit through a film about a soldier from war. However all roads point towards his being unbelievably strong and heartbreaking. That said, Daniel Day Lewis is a lock. He has swept this category in all the pre-Oscar awards, is beloved by the academy and it is apparently his strongest performance in a long time. And finally - Oscars love a big, larger than life if not crazy performance (see Forest Whitaker's role in Last King of Scotland)and you need not look any further than the trailer for confirmation of that! MY BET - Daniel Day Lewis

The Ladies...
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, Môme, La
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Lets start with those who are not going to get the award. Cate Blanchett and Laura Linney are not even in the hunt. For Cate -see my supporting actress assessment. She's a double nominee and that is probably all that she will be at the end of the night. She should have won for her performance in the original Elizabeth, where she was much better and with vastly stronger material. For Laura Linney this is a time when the trite phrase 'it's an honor just to get the nomination' is actually true. It was a strong performance in a small film that few people saw and Philip Seymour Hoffman is arguably the stronger choice for a nomination for this film (he is instead nominated for Charlie Wilson's War). Linney is one of my favorite actors and she will eventually win. The three that remain all have a fighting shot. Cotillard's take on singer Edith Piaf is eerie and spot on. She has won some of the awards, but there is strong pull for veteran actor Julie Christie whose devastating take of a woman who descends into advanced Alzheimer's disease has moved everyone who has seen it. Another Oscar quirk - Oscar loves themselves a 'sick/disabled/disease' role - to name a few Dustin Hoffman, Rainman; Tom Hanks, Philadelphia; Daniel Day Lewis, My Left Foot; Holly Hunter, The Piano -- do you see the trend? And then there is Juno's Ellen Page who is in a word luminous. Her take on this pregnant teen is grounded, vulnerable and circumspect. We go the journey with her as she copes with being pregnant and giving the baby away. She is a marvelous actress, the critics (and academy) are in love with her - for her talent and the fact that at 21 she is the anti-Hollywood starlet. She is a dark horse here and would be an awesome upset in the 3rd hour of what will certainly be a long night.
MY BET - Julie Christie, MY HEART/HOPE - Ellen Page.