Tonight it's about the screenplays - adapted and original.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Juno, Diablo Cody
Lars and the Real Girl, Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton, Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille, Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco
The Savages, Tamara Jenkins
OK, this is a no brainer. Juno's writer Diablo Cody will win. Aside from the fact that she arguably wrote the most insightful, witty screenplay in years her personal story is one that makes for fun news fodder (she was formerly a stripper). It is also an opportunity for the academy to award a deserving film without giving it the Best Film award. The shame in that is that Michael Clayton's sarastic, twisting conversation thriller winds up odd man out. One final note, I need the Ratatouille nomination explained to me in tiny language. I love me an animated film as much as the next one, but the second you have three authors credited means you are writing by committee. MY BET - Juno
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published *Otherwise known as - Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Atonement, Christopher Hampton
Away from Her, Sarah Polley
Scaphandre et le papillon, Le, Ronald Harwood
No Country for Old Men, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood, Paul Thomas Anderson
While this isn't a lock, No Country for Old Men is the good bet. If it does win, expect a sweep of the top categories it is nominated for in the last hour of the show. If by some stroke of cruelty, if Javier Bardem loses than this category is wide open. I actually think the dark horse is the French film, The Diving Butterfly. It is a unique film that is shot and told from the perspective of a man who suffers a stroke that leaves all but his left eye paralyzed, the story of his life/containment is told through the visions and imagination of the places he has not been and wished to journey to in his lifetime. Strange I know, but so unbelievably original, it may take it in an upset. Away from Her also has an outside shot here. It is a heartbreaking tale of compassion and the real depth of love in face of alzheimer's disease. Again, the Cohen brothers are beloved in the academy, the movie has moments of genius and the momentum going into Sunday night.
MY BET - No Country for Old Men
QUICK FOOTNOTE -- LOST - OMG!!!! So Kate is raising Aaron. I suspect we now know who the survivor is that will be killed either next week or week after next. What an amazing comeback season they are having.
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3 comments:
I agree with almost all your Oscar picks! (So we'd probably be tied for first-- or last-- in this year's pool.) I'm not thrilled about the No Country sweep because I wasn't as in awe of the movie as everybody else, but it certainly seems to be strongest of the bunch. Ditto Juno for screenplay. And Daniel Day-Lewis giving Meryl a run for her money.
The actress catagories are tough, though. The BA definitely seems like a race between 2 things the Academy LOVES-- older actress who hasn't gotten her due in years, and newcomer in a biopic. I'm betting on Cotillard by a nose... If Ellen Page was somehow nominated for Best Supporting, she'd be a lock (a la Marisa Tomei, Mira Sorvino-- but way better)... but Actress, I don't see it.
Supporting, meanwhile... they may very likely go for sentimental favorite Ruby Dee. Who I hear was great (didn't see the movie)-- but had something like 5 minutes of screen time, which is less than Judi Dench had when she won for Shakespeare in Love. So, that may hurt her chances. Otherwise, love Amy Ryan-- but I think we may see an upset here by Tilda Swinton, who's fabulous in everything but unfortunately isn't at the table with one of her better films.
My Ballot:
BP-No Country for Old Men
BA-Daniel Day Lewis
BA-Marion Cotillard
BSA-Javier Bardem
BSA-Tilda Swinton
BD-Coen Brothers
Screenplay- Juno/No Country
You gotta have your one wacky, it's never happening pick don't you. Tilda is not winning this my friend. No way, no how. You are crazy.
However you have inspired me to do something next year. With everyone so spread out I am going to have people post their picks on the blog for bragging rights.
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