T-Minus 11 hours and 45 minutes...

And here we are on Oscar day. My traditional Oscar party is not what it use to be. I am not certain whether that is due to the sprawl in which my friends now live or the fact that this, unlike NY is not as much of a movie town. Regardless there will be pernil and rice to go around for whoever is here. Truth be told, I do miss the larger gathering with trash talk, Vicky never having her $10 for the pool, Robin and Kylie's favorite part being the red carpet walk to breakdown how the outfits went horribly wrong, Wes' aggravation over the academy's inability to think like him and Lydell's never wavering belief that he is going to win (and the fact that it is Tikketha's fault when he doesn't). I suspect that is what made the party the most fun.

But enough nostalgia, I have two more categories to cover - Best Director and Film.

Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, Scaphandre et le papillon, Le

OK, this category is a no brainer. You need only follow the rule of thumb that says. As goes the Director's Guild, goes the Oscars. The DGA selects its' best director each year in advance of the Oscars and the last time that director did not go on to win the Best Oscar was over 20 years ago when Steven Spielberg won the DGA for The Color Purple and lost the Oscar to Sydney Pollack for Out of Africa. All of this to say - Joel and Ethan Cohen will win this award tonight. Period.

Side note -- Remember when the Oscars (and all awards shows for that matter went politically correct and stopped saying "And the winner is..." for the more gentile "And the Oscar goes to..." This was the start of a trend against winners and losers that permeates our lives now. Little Leagues give everyone trophies, there are no winners and losers. It is the slow erosion of competition. But I digress...


Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
Atonement - Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Paul Webster
Juno - Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick, Russell Smith
Michael Clayton - Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox, Kerry Orent
No Country for Old Men - Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson, Daniel Lupi, JoAnne Sellar

This is the unfortunate part of the evening. It's a solid bet that No Country for Old Men will win this category. There is minimal to no chance that Juno or Michael Clayton could dark horse this race. It is unlikely though because No Country for Old Men has the wind at its back and was as much a critical darling as Juno and Michael Clayton. It makes for a boring last half hour of the Oscars because it holds little to no suspense. I liked the film a whole lot, would still likely select Juno if I was picking a best film of the three. It's an odd category this year because none of the five films are classics in the making. They are simply good work. So don't feel any shame in going to sleep early this year and checking the Internet or Today Show for a wrap up in the morning.

I of course will be up for the long haul. I am a die hard though and this is my fun night. I like to watch and critique it all from the speeches to the memoriam. I may blog along the way tonight or simply recap in the morning. Stay tuned.

48 Hours to John Stewart's Opening Monologue

Tonight it's about the screenplays - adapted and original.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Juno, Diablo Cody
Lars and the Real Girl, Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton, Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille, Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco
The Savages, Tamara Jenkins

OK, this is a no brainer. Juno's writer Diablo Cody will win. Aside from the fact that she arguably wrote the most insightful, witty screenplay in years her personal story is one that makes for fun news fodder (she was formerly a stripper). It is also an opportunity for the academy to award a deserving film without giving it the Best Film award. The shame in that is that Michael Clayton's sarastic, twisting conversation thriller winds up odd man out. One final note, I need the Ratatouille nomination explained to me in tiny language. I love me an animated film as much as the next one, but the second you have three authors credited means you are writing by committee. MY BET - Juno

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published *Otherwise known as - Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Atonement, Christopher Hampton
Away from Her, Sarah Polley
Scaphandre et le papillon, Le, Ronald Harwood
No Country for Old Men, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood, Paul Thomas Anderson

While this isn't a lock, No Country for Old Men is the good bet. If it does win, expect a sweep of the top categories it is nominated for in the last hour of the show. If by some stroke of cruelty, if Javier Bardem loses than this category is wide open. I actually think the dark horse is the French film, The Diving Butterfly. It is a unique film that is shot and told from the perspective of a man who suffers a stroke that leaves all but his left eye paralyzed, the story of his life/containment is told through the visions and imagination of the places he has not been and wished to journey to in his lifetime. Strange I know, but so unbelievably original, it may take it in an upset. Away from Her also has an outside shot here. It is a heartbreaking tale of compassion and the real depth of love in face of alzheimer's disease. Again, the Cohen brothers are beloved in the academy, the movie has moments of genius and the momentum going into Sunday night.
MY BET - No Country for Old Men

QUICK FOOTNOTE -- LOST - OMG!!!! So Kate is raising Aaron. I suspect we now know who the survivor is that will be killed either next week or week after next. What an amazing comeback season they are having.

Oscars, Debates and Lost - OH MY!

Quick advisory note -- Tape Lost, watch the Debates on CNN.

OK, back to the Oscars -- Today, the Actors

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Sadly this is a no brainer. All the performances are strong, Clooney in particular gives an ironic disquieted performance. Johnny Depp takes on the creepy and blood thirsty Sweeny Todd with a terrific style and morose take and he swings the difficult music with ease. Viggo Mortensen shows his talents in ways people wouldn't normally think of him in, especially those who adore the Lord of the Rings trilogy. I have not seen Tommy Lee Jones' performance, because frankly I can not sit through a film about a soldier from war. However all roads point towards his being unbelievably strong and heartbreaking. That said, Daniel Day Lewis is a lock. He has swept this category in all the pre-Oscar awards, is beloved by the academy and it is apparently his strongest performance in a long time. And finally - Oscars love a big, larger than life if not crazy performance (see Forest Whitaker's role in Last King of Scotland)and you need not look any further than the trailer for confirmation of that! MY BET - Daniel Day Lewis

The Ladies...
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, Môme, La
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Lets start with those who are not going to get the award. Cate Blanchett and Laura Linney are not even in the hunt. For Cate -see my supporting actress assessment. She's a double nominee and that is probably all that she will be at the end of the night. She should have won for her performance in the original Elizabeth, where she was much better and with vastly stronger material. For Laura Linney this is a time when the trite phrase 'it's an honor just to get the nomination' is actually true. It was a strong performance in a small film that few people saw and Philip Seymour Hoffman is arguably the stronger choice for a nomination for this film (he is instead nominated for Charlie Wilson's War). Linney is one of my favorite actors and she will eventually win. The three that remain all have a fighting shot. Cotillard's take on singer Edith Piaf is eerie and spot on. She has won some of the awards, but there is strong pull for veteran actor Julie Christie whose devastating take of a woman who descends into advanced Alzheimer's disease has moved everyone who has seen it. Another Oscar quirk - Oscar loves themselves a 'sick/disabled/disease' role - to name a few Dustin Hoffman, Rainman; Tom Hanks, Philadelphia; Daniel Day Lewis, My Left Foot; Holly Hunter, The Piano -- do you see the trend? And then there is Juno's Ellen Page who is in a word luminous. Her take on this pregnant teen is grounded, vulnerable and circumspect. We go the journey with her as she copes with being pregnant and giving the baby away. She is a marvelous actress, the critics (and academy) are in love with her - for her talent and the fact that at 21 she is the anti-Hollywood starlet. She is a dark horse here and would be an awesome upset in the 3rd hour of what will certainly be a long night.
MY BET - Julie Christie, MY HEART/HOPE - Ellen Page.

Homage and More Oscar Breakdown

Mr. Roger's Neighborhood -- Today marks the anniversary of the first time it was a beautiful day in the neighborhood. 40 years ago Mr. Rogers entered our living rooms, changing the face of television with the same ease that he changed his skip sneakers. I grew up watching Mr. Rogers Neighborhood as a child and learned my alphabet along with the many songs, puppets and characters. I wanted more than anything to have a model train that traveled through my house. Along with Sesame Street, The Electric Company and Villa Allegre, Mr. Roger's Neighborhood is a symbol of kindness and simplicity in teaching manners, tolerance right along with my numbers and ABCs. As I raise a toddler now, I am often nostalgic about the shows I grew up on. What are your memories of Mr. Rogers?

And the Oscars... I was going to do another breakdown tonight - 5 days and counting, but Mr. Rogers deserves his own space. So more tomorrow.

Oscar Breakdown -- 6 days and counting

Here we go it is time for my favorite arm chair quarterbacking. Breaking down the Oscars by category. The Oscars are on Sunday, complete with John Stewart as host and a Barbara Walter's special. Now while I will be tuning in to see Harrison Ford and Ellen Page's interview - I think I will skip Miley Cyrus and Vanessa Williams. The latter escape me as to how they are connected to the big night. But over the next week I will be breaking down the nominees and voting for my favorites -- Mind you there is a difference between my favorite vs. what I believe the academy will choose. This is a concept my dear friend Wes simply refused to embrace and why he has never won the Oscar pool.

Up First - Best Supporting Actor & Actress

The nominees:

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

As I type this I can see the sentence biting me in the ass. My vote goes to Javier Bardem and conventional wisdom says he will win as well. He has pretty much swept up the pre-season awards, most importantly the SAG last month. It is a horrifically creepy and compelling performance and Bardem is "due" for not winning for Before Night Falls (especially since he was beat by a less than spectacular performance from Russell Crowe in Gladiator). Here is the problem, Oscar loves an upset and a reach and usually reserves it for the supporting actor categories. I would say Hoffman is out, he won recently for his tour de force performance in Capote. Wilkinson is good, but in a showy role that many good actors could have eaten up like candy. I did not see Casey Affleck's performance yet, have heard it's great, but he's the younger brother of Ben Affleck for goodness sake, the gods can't be that cruel. While I wouldn't bet the farm on it (see Lauren Bacall for the Mirror Has Two Faces), I think Holbrook has a shot at this because it is a poignant beautiful performance and he is a revered elder statesman of the academy. What hurts him, no one saw the film. MY BET - Javier Bardem

Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Here is a race where I think the academy will have its' upset. Blanchett and Dee have both taken pre-season awards and the obvious contenders. Both are great in their respective roles. Blanchett is nominated twice, for an undeserving turn in Elizabeth. I love Cate as much as the next person, but this was a gimme. I suspect she will stay seated come Sunday night. Ruby Dee is interesting for a couple of reasons, she is an icon, a marvelous actress and in the twilight of her career. She is also notably the only African American nominated in a major category this year. Will the academy ride the recent wave of minority wins? I am not so sure and here is why. Amy Ryan has gotten wonderful raves for Gone Baby Gone and is adored by the critics in a film role that moved people. She could be the quirky win that the academy loves to have (see Marisa Tomei)and could be a sleeper win (P.S. a Ben Affleck film - do you sense the trend).
MY PICK - Ruby Dee (but I will be neither surprised nor sad if Amy Ryan is making a speech at 9:30PM this Sunday).

Tomorrow.... Bring on the actors

Random thoughts after a full night's sleep

My daughter slept until 6:30 AM in her own bed. This is monumental because I have a clarity of thought this morning that usually involves 2 cups of coffee to achieve. But I digress...

As I check email this morning I have Presumed Innocent on in the backdrop. Two things come to mind as I watch. 1) How much this movie doesn't capture the utter surprise of the who done it that the book does. 2) More importantly, it reminds me how much I miss Raul Julia. While there was always certain pride in a fellow Puerto Rican's success, Raul Julia had a way about him on screen that was seductive and compelling. He could take the simplest of language and twist it in ways that made it sarcastic, knowing and sincere. Now Raul Julia made his share of crappy films like anyone does, but the roles he did well - like in Presumed Innocent are such a treasure of his talents. So on an overcast Sunday, I miss Raul Julia.

Did I mention that the Oscars are next week? They are and I have a couple of films to catch up on to have working knowledge of all the contenders so I can make my predictions and handicap the race. I will however sit here now and confess - I will not be seeing "There Will Be Blood". I just can't do maniacal Daniel Day Lewis. The trailer alone creeps me out. I am however enjoying as I do every year TCM (Turner Classic Movies) 31 Days of Oscar. Robert Osbourne has my dream job, he gets factoids about classic movies and introduces them while informing the viewer of odd movie trivia. Oh to have that job!

LOST -- Yes, I can not go a week without talking about LOST, if 24 were on that would get equal billing. I just haven't had the chance to write since Thursday. First off, I am thrilled Sayid is one of the Oceanic 6 he is a favorite character of mine and it's nice to know he survives. Although the ending revealing that he is actually an assassin for Ben was beyond jaw drop unbelievable. This is particularly puzzling because Sayid says to Locke "the day I believe him is the day I sell my soul". Apparently that day wasn't as far off as Sayid thought. It will be interesting to get Kate's side of life after the island considering the others that have been revealed - Jack, Hurley and Sayid have all been miserable. Am I the only one waiting on the resurrection of Michael? His name appears in the opening credits but so far not seen. My guess is that he is Ben's "spy" on the ship. I also don't know what to make of the 37 minute time delay that was revealed with the 'experiment' run by that wacky rescuer. And finally, we need to start the betting pool because in the next couple of episodes someone is going to die. Last week I was convinced it was going to be Locke. Now I am not so sure. I don't think it will be a secondary player, my gut tells me one of the major favorites. I have a sinking suspicion this week that it is Sawyer. I hope I am wrong, but next week is being billed as Kate's rescue off the island and at the end of this last episode Kate has decided to stay on the island. What would have changed her mind? Is it Sawyer who is among the Oceanic 6? Who is the guy she needs to get home to when she meets Jack at the airport from the flash forward last season?

This is what I adore about this show -- even when it gives us answers, it provides more questions. Classic television in the making. Seriously, if you haven't already you need to get LOST.